Wed 27 / 07 / 16
The Future Office: How the World of Work May Change in the Next 20 Years
The Future Office: How the World of Work May Change in the Next 20 Years
•Survey of Sussex Innovation network highlights artificial intelligence and automation as key business trends to have an impact on the workplace by 2036
•New hardware, socio-political shifts and remote/flexible working also cited
•Comparison between 1996 and 2016 illustrates rapid pace of technological change
BRIGHTON, 6th July 2016: A survey of business leaders in the South East1 has revealed that artificial intelligence and automation are expected to become commonplace in UK businesses over the next 20 years, with opinions divided as to whether the trend will have a positive or negative impact on our daily working lives.
The research was conducted to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Sussex Innovation Centre, which opened its doors on the University of Sussex campus in June 1996 – making it one of the first business incubation hubs in the UK.
The Centre surveyed its network of entrepreneurs, business owners, corporate innovators and academics to find out what developments they expect to have the biggest impact on business and the workplace over the next 20 years:
Looking ahead to 20 years from now (2036), what trends do you think will have the biggest impact on the way we do business?
•39% of interviewees mentioned automation, AI or smart processes
•31% mentioned 3D printing, robotics, virtual reality and other new hardware
•25% mentioned social, demographic or political shifts
•20% mentioned remote or flexible working and changing work/life balance
•17% mentioned the effect of globalisation and emerging economies such as China
Many respondents to the survey predicted that improvements in AI and machine learning would be most noticeable among the ‘white collar’ service industry professions, which are responsible for more than three quarters of the UK’s GDP2. There were several suggestions that the availability of jobs, as well as expectations of income and work hours, will face potentially massive upheaval as a result.
“Automation of many roles in the service industries will require us to completely rethink how the job marketplace is structured - there will be more and more requirement for programming abilities, with growth in the types of roles that emphasise creative and critical thinking.”
“It may cause a greater imbalance between the moneyed elite (entrepreneurs/professionals) and the non-moneyed workforce and middle management displaced by AI.”
“Tech will go one way or another - it will create more jobs but most likely will cost jobs. The most valuable tech companies don't actually employee that many people. Maybe there will be a backlash against tech.”
Perhaps influenced by proximity to the EU referendum, a quarter of those interviewed mentioned social, demographic or political changes. Several business owners echoed the concerns of the remain campaign, as to what effect the UK leaving the EU may have on the economy. There were also a number of comments predicting a shift towards more ethical business practices becoming the norm.
“If the UK stays in, the EU will be important. If the UK leaves it will cause severe problems for the economy.”
“There will be a revival in the importance of ethics in business, as a reaction to the growth over the last decade in the exploitation of employees and the environment.”
“We will turn away from consumerism towards a more philosophical approach and different priorities.”
Meanwhile, 1 in 5 interviewees emphasised the move towards more flexible working arrangements, including virtual and remote working. This trend is already being observed in many businesses, with 8% of respondents citing remote working as having had the biggest impact on the way they work currently.
New and more widely available mobile technology is likely to be the driving force behind this change. When asked to rank the most essential pieces of technology for work in both 1996 and 2016 [see Notes to Editors], respondents ranked WiFi, smartphones, broadband and laptops as priorities for the contemporary office, ahead of the desktop computer, which was by far the most essential device 20 years ago.
Dr Petros Chamakiotis is a Lecturer in Information Systems at the University of Sussex, and researches the impact of technology on how we interact with each other, in particular in modern, technology-mediated environments. He takes a particular interest in the development of virtual teams - an increasingly common way of working in global organizations.
“It is not an easy job to work collaboratively together with ‘online strangers’ whom you may never meet face-to-face, and yet be expected to be productive and creative,” he says. “Especially in industries in which creativity and innovation matter, it is important that leaders and managers have the necessary skills to unleash their virtual teams’ creativity, whilst mitigating the negative effects of virtuality.”
Dr Chamakiotis’ research also looks at the wider impact of these technologies outside organizations. As he puts it, “the connectivity afforded by smartphones and mobile technology enables people to work from anywhere, anytime. As a result, rather than separating ‘work’ from ‘life’, people tend to draw new boundaries between ‘online’ and ‘offline’ or between their private and public lives online.” He discusses some of the challenges associated with these wider impacts of technology on work-life boundaries in a recent video with colleagues from a multidisciplinary research project3 he has participated in.
The ultimate caveat for all of these findings, as mentioned in many of the responses, was that the rate of technological advancement makes it difficult to predict any future trend with complete certainty. Even the most advanced technologies can easily become obsolete in the space of twenty years, as illustrated by some of the decisions made when the Sussex Innovation Centre opened in 1996.
“Our specifications for the building were initially based on the requirement for one computer between every two people in the building, which was cutting-edge for the time,” says Mike Herd, Executive Director of Sussex Innovation. “In fact, the corridors in the first phase of the building were built to be wide enough to drive a Landrover through, in order to more easily bring in the bulky computing equipment that several of our tenants needed for their work.”
“As well as practical improvements, the cost of technology has rapidly declined. In the early years, several people tried to break into the building in order to steal graphics processor chips from our workstations, which were the very latest tech and could fetch a hefty price. The average person’s phone now comes with more RAM than those chips had. It goes to show how quickly things can change – the best advice I can give to any business is to keep on top of where things are going, and to continuously evaluate and adapt.”
Sussex Innovation Centre will host an all-day innovation showcase event on Wednesday 12th October.
1All original research cited in this press release was compiled from interviews with 150 business leaders, including 90 company founders, conducted by Sussex Innovation Centre in June 2016.
2Service sector contributes 77.8% of UK GDP, ONS data, April 2013: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_315661.pdf
3Dr Chamakiotis recently participated in the Digital Brain Switch Project in collaboration with a number of other academics and researchers, full details of which can be found here: http://www.scc.lancs.ac.uk/research/projects/DBS/
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